Simon Kuper raised a soul-searching question in his acclaimed book Football Economics:
Why are most football clubs' signings so illogical?
Transfers involve millions, tens of millions, even hundreds of millions of euros, yet they rarely conduct serious market research. Why? Because of one match? One tournament? Sometimes, it's simply because everyone else is doing it.
So they all rush in.
He argues this is the starkest difference between professional football and modern enterprises.
Simply put, professional football is still terribly unprofessional when it comes to risk management.
Gao Shen had always found many of the book's concepts worth studying and applying.
For instance, Kuper wrote that many "stars" who emerge from major tournaments often command inflated prices—but usually fail to live up to those valuations. The reason: those players happened to flourish in a very specific tactical environment that allowed them to perform beyond their normal level.
Once they leave that environment and their form drops, they can't replicate that success.
This made a lot of sense to Gao Shen.
It was also the fundamental difference between major international competitions like the World Cup or Euros and the club football season.
Take Arshavin as an example. Even at Arsenal, he never replicated the dominance he showed in the European Championship.
But what Kuper didn't account for is that clubs do understand this principle.
Some might ask, if they understand it, why do they still spend?
Simple: different objectives lead to different perspectives.
In Gao Shen's previous life, people said Real Madrid bought James Rodríguez after the 2014 World Cup in exchange for a €7 billion infrastructure deal.
Gao Shen didn't buy into that rumor.
Any cross-border mega infrastructure project of that scale must be negotiated at the national level. It involves long-term diplomatic and economic discussions—not something triggered by buying a superstar.
Besides, are we to believe Real Madrid had already identified James as a breakout star before the World Cup? That they'd have bought any Colombian who emerged?
Absolutely not.
More realistically, James was both talented and good-looking—perfect for Real Madrid's commercial needs. Florentino Pérez had always prioritized stars who could enhance the club's global image. That's why they were willing to pay a premium.
And as a membership-owned club, Real Madrid—like Barcelona—is not allowed to show profits. While most clubs struggle to make money, Real and Barça face the opposite issue: how not to turn a profit.
That's why both clubs often make baffling transfer decisions.
From this perspective, Real Madrid paying a fortune for James Rodríguez isn't so strange after all.
But reality proved James was at most worth €40 to €50 million. Real paid a peak-market premium for a temporary star.
That's a bad deal.
By contrast, after Euro 2008, teams were far more cautious with Arshavin. As a result, he missed the market peak and ended up at Arsenal.
Looking back, what was the global climate in 2008?
…
After acquiring Leeds United, Gao Shen had to think about funding. So when Fernando Lucas presented an idea, Gao Shen was genuinely tempted.
How do you sell the players Leeds currently owns for maximum value?
Jonathan Howson was undoubtedly the most valuable asset and Lucas zoomed in on him.
This was standard practice in Europe.
To put it bluntly, behind every transfer, there's spin, packaging, and carefully placed media buzz.
Take Richard Naylor, for example. A 34-year-old veteran who spent most of his career in the lower leagues. Once a striker, now a center-back. He had joined Leeds to wind down his career. At this point, he no longer aligned with the club's long-term vision. Letting him go on a free was the logical step.
Then there's Jonathan Howson. A rising star and a fan favorite. But he was eager to leave. He wanted to prove himself on a bigger stage, especially after enjoying the best season of his career.
That made sense.
So Gao Shen and Lucas decided: send Naylor off, and present to the outside world that Leeds is trying hard to keep Howson. At the same time, leak flattering reports—like Gao Shen calling him "Lampard II"—to stir interest and build hype.
Of course, none of this would work if Howson hadn't actually performed well. But he had.
Other wantaway players—like McCormack, Schmeichel, and Snodgrass—would follow similar strategies. But they wouldn't fetch Howson-level fees.
Ultimately, performance is the deciding factor for professional players.
It's worth noting that Kasper Schmeichel was the highest-paid player at Leeds, earning £15,000 per week—already high for a Championship club.
Now, Howson's agent was demanding £25,000 per week and a promotion clause. Otherwise, they wouldn't rule out leaving for the Premier League next summer.
Under these conditions, how could Gao Shen possibly agree?
He knew what Manchester United were offering Pogba to renew: £15,000 per week.
That's the same as Schmeichel's salary, but nearly half of what Howson's camp wanted.
There was no way to make that work.
Even with Gao Shen's reputation, players wouldn't stay just because of his name—unless he were managing the team himself.
So, better to cash in now while the market's hot.
Thanks to Lucas's handling, Howson, Schmeichel, and others were indeed attracting attention—especially Howson.
Gao Shen was just waiting to see who would make the first move.
…
The night was quiet and deep.
All of London was asleep.
Everyone was waiting for tomorrow night's Champions League final.
Except in Fulham, where Barcelona were staying. In his hotel suite, Guardiola sat alone in front of the window.
He had dragged a sofa chair to the floor-to-ceiling glass and was staring out at the moonlit cityscape, deep in thought.
The coaching staff had just finished a tactical meeting to prepare for the final, but many issues remained unresolved.
One major question: where should Messi play?
On the right? Up front?
Striker? Or attacking midfielder?
Barcelona's squad was stacked, but Guardiola constantly tweaked formations to stay unpredictable. That led to numerous tactical setups.
For instance, Messi on the right, Agüero central, and Sánchez on the left. A standard 4-3-3.
Or Messi central, Agüero left, Sánchez right, another flavor of 4-3-3.
Messi could even drop into the No. 10 role, with Sánchez and Agüero as dual strikers. That resembled a 4-3-1-2.
Each formation activated players differently. Different roles, different responsibilities, different counters for different opponents.
Over the past season, Guardiola had mastered this system-switching style.
That's why Barcelona had already secured a domestic double and were chasing the treble.
In 2009, they also had the double and looked poised to win the Champions League at the Bernabéu. Instead, they were demolished by Gao Shen's Napoli, suffering a humiliating defeat.
Guardiola still remembered that game vividly.
Now he was facing Gao Shen again, but this time with Manchester City. How should he approach the match?
Guardiola was torn.
He considered using his go-to 4-3-3. But he had a nagging feeling that he would be suppressed.
Because he knew Gao Shen too well.
Despite Manchester City's reputation for possession and fluid attack, they couldn't out-pass Barcelona.
If Gao Shen were to rely purely on possession, Guardiola would be confident.
But he knew Gao Shen would go aggressive at the start, then gradually shift into a possession rhythm.
And really, who passed better than Barcelona?
The 4-3-3 had its strengths, but so did the 4-3-1-2. Both options had upsides—and risks.
Guardiola's head hurt.
He knew Gao Shen would target the midfield. Deploying Messi as a No. 10 could link midfield and attack, but it required a formational shift.
However, that 4-3-1-2 shape had only been used twice all season.
In the meeting, Vilanova played devil's advocate and proposed some tactical ideas. But Guardiola knew, Vilanova wasn't the kind of opponent he needed to plan against.
There was no fixed playbook against someone like Gao Shen.
If there was any "routine," it was that Gao Shen would use whatever worked best to win.
That was what gave Guardiola the biggest headache.
He was trapped.
Absolutely torn.
Just then, his phone vibrated.
He picked it up. It was a Twitter notification.
Gao Shen had tweeted.
> "Don't stress, my friend. I know you've got insomnia. Go shower and get some sleep. See you tomorrow night!"
Guardiola's jaw dropped.
What the hell?!
How did he know?
Was he watching me?
Guardiola quickly stood up and scanned the room. Could there be hidden cameras?
No way. This was one of the top hotels in London. Impossible.
There was only one explanation…
When he realized it, Guardiola groaned.
Gao Shen, you monster!
(To be continued.)